By Jaya Josie

The world awoke to the second presidency of Donald Trump in the US on the November 6, 2024. While there was much trepidation and despair amongst supporters of the outgoing US administration, in South Africa there were mixed opinions. Some expressing disappointment, others expressing optimism in the hope that there will be a sea change in international conflicts, while some expressed a more cynical view that a second Trump administration may see the unravelling of the government of national unity (GNU) and President Cyril Ramaphosa’s current international relations strategy with China, BRICS, and Russia. This latter view advocates that a Trump administration will take a harsher view of South Africa’s drift towards a non-aligned international relations position and put pressure on the country using the bargaining chip of trade relations between the US and South Africa.

A view that advocates the unravelling of the GNU because of South Africa’s foreign policy choices fails to understand that the country’s international relations is determined by a constitutional mandate that international relations is the prerogative of the President. As if to underscore South Africa’s independent and non-aligned foreign policy the South African government recently hosted a high level delegation from the Communist Party of China (CPC) from the 5 to 7 November 2024. The visit by the CPC delegation intended to build on the long-standing friendship between China and South Africa. In particular the visit is an attempt by the two parties to consolidate the consensus agreed upon between President Xi Jinping and President Ramaphosa during the latter’s recent state visit to China. While deepening the relationship in line with the outcomes of the recent Beijing Summit of the Forum on China Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) the visit was significant for consolidating the China-South Africa All-round Strategic Cooperative Partnership.

The visit by the CPC delegation was reciprocated by a high-level South African delegation visit to China led by the Minister in the Presidency for Planning, Monitoring and Evaluation, Maropene Ramokgopa that concluded last week. The main aim of the visit was to engage state owned institutions and enterprises in China to learn and understand the reform process and best practices in China. As South Africa is experiencing serious challenges in managing its own State Owned Enterprises (SOE) the visit was to secure a detailed perspective on how China manages and reforms its SOEs. The visit comes at a time when the South African government is advancing in parliament its National State Enterprises Bill and shareholder ownership model for SOEs.

The Minister engaged with the senior leadership of China’s State Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council (SASAC) and the China Reform Holdings Corporation (CRH) and learned how these institutions manage state-owned assets and institutions. In particular the Minister’s engagement with the China Enterprise Reform and Development Research Society (CERDS) demonstrated how China implemented SOE reforms in stages since the start of the reform period in 1978. Minister Ramokgopa’s interactions also included meetings with the Senior Vice President of the China Development Bank, Mr Wang Weidong and the President of the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) Mr Jin Liqun. At both these engagements commitments were made to support South Africa’s SOE and infrastructure reform through investment in funding and capacity building. The visits by the CPC to South Africa and, the working visit by South Africa’s Minister Ramokgopa to China only underscores the commitment made by President Xi Jinping and President Ramaphosa in September 2024 to take the two countries relationship from a diplomatic Comprehensive Strategic Partnership to that of an All Round Strategic Cooperative Partnership. This is the kind of relationship that South Africa pursues in its independent non-aligned foreign policy.

Considering that for the past 15 years China has been South Africa’s and Africa’s largest trading partner and, where in May 2024 bilateral trade reached $23.5 billion (around R417.05 billion). South African exports to China were $15.3 billion (R271.54 billion), up 14% year-on-year. With China soon expected to lift tariffs on tradeable products this level of trade is only expected to grow exponentially. Recently China’s new ambassador to South Africa Wu Peng pointed out that South African goods such as wine, rooibos tea, aloe gel and other quality products are becoming very popular in the massive Chinese market of 1.4 billion people. In addition he noted that more than 200 companies from China have invested or started businesses in the country creating over 400 000 jobs. In a country with one of the highest unemployment rates in the world South Africa’s relationship with China and other BRICS countries is unlikely to come under any pressure from the in-coming USA administration or partners in the country’s GNU. It is known that the leader of the Democratic Alliance (DA) , now GNU minister of Agriculture, accompanied President Ramaphosa to the FOCAC Summit in Beijing where he also had discussions with his counterpart in China. Furthermore, it is well known that many investments from China are located in the Western Cape. In the South African delegation to the BRICS Summit in Kazan, Russia, other GNU partners included the leader of the Patriotic Alliance.

According to an internal ANC discussion on the reasons for the loss of its majority in the South African parliament to 40% was a lack of internal discipline and ethical principles within the ranks of its cadres deployed in administrative and political positions. Among factors such as non delivery of essential services, high unemployment especially among youth and, rising levels of corruption and crime the ANCs’ former supporters in disadvantaged areas of the country became disillusioned. They did not vote in the elections or protested by voting for opposition parties. The loss of its over 50% majority in parliament pushed the ANC into forming a Government of National Unity (GNU) with the DA and other smaller political party partners. Many of these issues may have been discussed at the recent meeting with representatives from the CPC led by Li Xi, Secretary of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection of the CPC. These issues must have been key in the ANC’s engagement with the CPC. At the end of the discussions the ANC released a statement that indicated that the two parties were exploring practical steps to cooperate on governance, anti-corruption efforts, poverty alleviation, and party-building initiatives

Through meetings with officials from South Africa’s ruling party, the African National Congress (ANC), the CPC delegation is exploring practical ways to cooperate on governance, anti- corruption efforts, poverty alleviation, and party-building initiatives. Two influential countries in the Global South, China and South Africa, are using this platform to share knowledge, strengthen bilateral ties, and work together toward shared development goals. The discussions were held as part of reaffirming the two parties commitment to the new China-South Africa All-round Strategic Cooperative Partnership that has evolved to also address new challenges and opportunities. The partnership platform, in future, will be used to share knowledge, strengthen bilateral ties and cooperation in shared development objectives.

At the bilateral meeting with the CPC delegation the ANC, aware of its own challenges, discussed lessons on how the CPC ensures discipline amongst all its members. An important highlight of the engagement were discussions on the fight against corruption.

There has been speculation in the South African media that the country’s international trade and foreign relationships with China, Russia and the BRICS+ in general may come under pressure from the incoming Trump administration. This speculation was driven by statements made by Helen Zille, one of the leaders of the DA. Zille recently attacked the President of the ANC, Cyril Ramaphosa, for his support of Russian President Vladimir Putin and, for adopting a neutral position on the war in Ukraine. Zille issued threats that her party will hold the ANC accountable for not consulting with the DA before taking a position on international relations. The Secretary General of the ANC, Fikile Mbalula, responded harshly to Zille’s comments. In a recent press conference he debunked the notion that the ANC is subservient to any other member of the GNU given that it commands a 40% majority in the country’s legislature. He made it absolutely clear that DA can leave the GNU anytime and the GNU will continue with other partners to run the government without the DA. This position means that the ANC is not beholden to any of its partners in the GNU. It is also important to remember that the two opposition parties in parliament have already indicated that both are committed to support for the BRICS+ and China. If the DA brings any of the ANC’s foreign policy issues to a vote in parliament it is unlikely to succeed. It is clear that the GNU is founded on a strategy that was widely discussed in South Africa’s ruling party and it is unlikely to crumble under pressure from any outside influences.

* Jaya Josie, Advisor Africa Zhejiang University International Business School (ZIBS) & Professor Adjunct University of the Western Cape (UWC) & University of Venda (UniVen)

** The views expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of IOL or Independent Media.

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