IN A troubling trend for South Africa’s energy sector, February 2025 has marked a period of significant decline in both electricity generation and distribution.

Statistics for February this year released by Stats SA on April 3 reveal that the country is grappling with an alarming drop in electricity availability, raising concerns over energy reliability and economic stability.

Electricity generation in South Africa rose by a meagre 0.4% year on year in February 2025, a stark contrast to the more favourable increases seen in previous months. The growth rate in September 2024 was a promising 8.9%, but this figure has soured dramatically, falling to just 5.7% in January 2025 before sliding into negative territory in February.

Electricity generation decreased by 2.5% month on month in February 2025 compared to January 2025. This follows month-on-month changes of 0.4% in January 2025 and -1.6% in December 2024. Additionally, seasonally adjusted electricity generation decreased by 2.1% for the three months ending in February 2025 compared to the previous three months, further indicating a troubling trend for the sector.

The electricity distribution landscape mirrors this decline, with figures showing a notable drop in the volume of electricity distributed, decreasing by 3.5% year on year in February 2025.

Comparatively, the year-on-year volume for that month was substantially higher in previous years: 16 138 GWh in February 2024, down from 15 370 GWh in February 2023 and 16 821 GWh in February 2022. The overall electricity distribution decreased in February 2025, following a slight recovery in January that saw a marginal rise of 0.1%.

The month-on-month statistics indicate a 2.7% decrease from January 2025, which was preceded by a decline of 0.9% in December 2024. The three-month seasonally adjusted figures reveal an overall reduction of 2.3% in electricity distribution for the period ending in February 2025.

In numerical terms, the total volume of electricity distributed in February 2025 stood at 15 581 GWh, significantly lower than the 17 064 GWh recorded just a month earlier. Comparatively, this represents a drop from 18 094 GWh in October 2024 and 17 419 GWh in November 2024.

The statistics highlight the consistent downward trend, indicating that South Africa’s electricity distribution capacity is under increasing strain.

This decline is also apparent when examining specific categories of electricity distribution. The national electricity supplier reported a generation of only 15 308 GWh in February 2025, compared to 16 631 GWh in January. Furthermore, inflows from neighbouring countries via electricity imports fell sharply by 39.4%, indicating reduced opportunities for cross-border trade that could have alleviated local supply challenges.

The implications of such energy declines extend beyond mere statistics; they threaten the stability of South Africa’s economy. Both heavy industry and everyday consumers depend heavily on a reliable energy supply for operations and daily life.

Many households have begun to experience intermittent power supply issues and rising energy costs. The data also reveals that the year-to-date percentage change in electricity distributed in 2025 includes 0.8% in January and -3.5% in February, combining for an overall figure that suggests continued instability in the energy market.

This gathering crisis pulls multiple layers of consequence into play, not least the economic ramifications for small and large businesses alike, which may face decisions about scaling back operations or adjusting their energy consumption strategies in light of increasing uncertainty in electrical supply reliability.

Moreover, the preliminary collection rate for the survey on electricity generation and distribution for February 2025 was at 92.3%, giving insight into potential reporting gaps which may further complicate the understanding of current energy performance metrics.

Experts underscore the urgent need for governmental intervention. A comprehensive energy strategy that addresses both the consistent output and improvement in infrastructure capability for distribution must be prioritised.

The call for investment in renewable energy sources has gained traction, given the abundant solar and wind resources available in South Africa. Increased focus on sustainable energy solutions could alleviate grid pressure while contributing toward long-term economic viability.

As February 2025 closes, South Africa stands at a critical juncture. With both electricity generation and distribution in decline, the country must urgently address these systemic issues to ensure a reliable power supply for tomorrow before the situation worsens.

The path forward demands not only immediate action but also a long-term vision to bolster the nation's electricity landscape and protect against further instability in the energy sector.

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The alarming drop in South Africa's electricity generation and distribution

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