'The ANC is going to continue to bleed': Analysts warn as uMkhonto weSizwe Party enters local elections

With the uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP) contesting the local government elections for the first time this year, the ANC might have a good reason to be worried, especially in KwaZulu-Natal, based on the outcome of the last general elections. 

These are the views of University of KwaZulu-Natal political analyst Zakhele Ndlovu. 

President Cyril Ramaphosa announced this week that the upcoming local government elections will be held on November 4, meaning the campaign is now in full swing. 

Ndlovu has given up hope that the ANC, which replaced all its KwaZulu-Natal elected structures with task teams, would recover from the downward spiral experienced during the 2024 general elections.

When contacted for comment, ANC’s KwaZulu-Natal spokesperson Sifiso Sonjica said the party would only give its comprehensive response after the first meeting of its newly appointed Provincial Task Team (PTT). 

Sonjica did not disclose when the meeting will take place. 

Following the dismal performance in the general elections, the ANC National Executive Committee (NEC) had, in February 2025, reconfigured its structures by disbanding the KZN leadership chaired by Sboniso Duma and replacing it with an interim team led by Jeff Radebe, as the convener, and Mike Mabuyakhulu as the coordinator.

The aim was to rebuild the provincial structure from the branches to the regions to regain support.

However, after ANC Secretary-General Fikile Mbalula raised concerns about the slow pace of rebuilding the structures, the NEC disbanded the PTT and replaced it with another PTT, now led by Mabuyakhulu as the new convener, replacing Radebe. 

This new structure included former eThekwini Municipality mayor and South African Communist Party (SACP) leader in the province, James Nxumalo, who is now PTT coordinator.

The SACP, which campaigned for the ANC in the previous elections as an ANC-led Tripartite Alliance partner, broke ranks to contest the upcoming elections on its own. 

“The ANC is going to continue to bleed as the SACP contests, although the issue of the SACP is not going to be that bad for the ANC, because the SACP does not enjoy much support,” said Ndlovu.

Ndlovu said the ANC’s declining trend is going to continue during the local government elections. 

“What is going to hit them the most is the MKP and the people who have completely lost confidence in the local government system, who believe that their lives are not getting any better, and they have given up. The ANC is not going to recover,” he said.

Ndlovu expressed concern that many people whose votes would have benefited political parties have no interest in going to the polls. 

He said many people who work far away from where they registered to vote would not even bother to travel long distances to the voting stations.

“A person who works in Durban but registered to vote in Port Shepstone would not waste his/her money travelling to vote.

“Those are the factors that would cause the ANC support to continue to decrease,” said Ndlovu.

He said the damage to the ANC’s support was too big for him to advise it on how to recover its lost ground. 

“Even if they do their door-to-door campaigns, it will not help because people have completely lost hope. The March and March campaign (against illegal foreigners) is also damaging the ANC because many people blame it for opening the borders,” said Ndlovu.

Former ANC KwaZulu-Natal chairperson Willies Mchunu, who has been appointed as the MKP provincial elections convener, said he could not share his party’s strategy to win municipalities, as that would end up in the ears of the opponents.

“The strategy is a very sensitive matter, but what would inform our strategy is that the ANC has fallen out of people’s favour because it has failed to serve them. There are too many weaknesses of the ANC in eThekwini, which have caused people to be unhappy. Therefore, for us, the ground is fertile to win eThekwini and other municipalities,” said Mchunu. 

He said the MKP has the advantage of never having ruled any municipality.

“People will be giving us a chance for the first time, and it will be the first time for them to experience being governed by the MKP.

“The only thing is that we have to be ready to exploit that situation and not have our own internal weaknesses destroying us while the ground is fertile for us,” said Mchunu. 

SACP National Spokesperson Mbulelo Mandlana said his party would not enter the elections with ill-wishes for the ANC.

“We enter these elections because we have a particular contribution to the transformation of the local government system. We have an agenda to pursue other than an agenda against somebody,” he said. 

Mandlana said the SACP strategy was not based on scavenging political activists who joined the MKP out of being disgruntled with the ANC. 

“Our strategy is based on articulating a specific perspective as a communist party in relation to our local government election approach.

“It really does not concern us who left the ANC to wherever because if that is the case, we would be running an opportunistic campaign, and the communist party does not seek to do that.” 

Another political analyst, Siyabonga Ntombela, said there was no doubt that the ANC was concerned about the possibility of losing more support. 

“If it were not worried, it would be surprising because the writing is on the wall. It has tried its best to extend services to many communities, but has neglected the heartbeat of a country, the city centres where jobs are created and where business ideas and meetings used to be held,” Ntombela said.

He said the ANC has also lost trust among the middle-class communities in urban areas because “the tax base of the country is neglected”. 

“This group of societies just needs a government that will ensure that basic services like water and electricity are uninterrupted, and they will play their part to contribute positively to the country,” he said.

bongani.hans@inl.co.za