Is João Lourenço plotting a third presidential term in Angola?

THE general who commands the Angolan state may be plotting a third term, according to newspapers in Angola and the European Union.

According to lawyer Agostinho Canando, in an interview with the German outlet DW, this would disrupt the country's social and constitutional order.

Involved in the violent repression of demonstrations in Angola this August, João Lourenço may be trying to extend his time in power, which would grant him judicial immunity.

To achieve this, he is persecuting a strong rival within his own party General Higino Carneiro, who is respected not only in the MPLA but also beyond it, thanks to his greater connection to life outside the party compared to João Lourenço. Recently, to target this rival, the Attorney General's Office (PGR) charged Carneiro with embezzlement and aggravated fraud.

Is the accusation against Higino Carneiro genuine justice or a political manoeuvre? With the MPLA congress approaching and presidential elections set for 2027, 2026 will be the year to settle all political loose ends and secure a possible re-election one that could only happen through an amendment to the Constitution of the Republic of Angola or some form of institutional coup.

In João Lourenço's favour is the arrest of foreigners allegedly linked to the taxi drivers' protests in July, which could allow the government to connect them to Carneiro and accuse him of conspiracy, especially since pro-government newspapers have already portrayed them as "external enemies".

It also looks very strange that immediately after J.Lo’s speech at the celebration of the MPLA’s 69th anniversary on December 13, in which he renounces a third term and mocks the “elders,” just a few days later that very “elder” dies Fernando da Piedade Dias dos Santos (known in Angola as “Nando”).

But Higino and Nando are not the only obstacles in Lourenço’s path to a third term. there is also the opposition outside the party, namely UNITA, led by the energetic Adalberto Costa Júnior, who is committed to introducing new economic policies less tied to the MPLA and, according to some analysts, aligning them with those of President Donald Trump.

If JLo succeeds in imprisoning or simply demoralising and weakening Higino Carneiro, nothing would stop him from using the same strategy against Adalberto Costa Júnior to discredit him, or against the leader of PRA-JÁ Servir Angola, thereby preventing a coalition between that organisation and UNITA.

In any case, this must not happen! For now, the main barrier is UNITA, the bastion of democracy. Its leader, Adalberto Costa Júnior, understands this perfectly. In a recent interview, he stated that he is being actively warned that a third presidential term for Lourenço is not ruled out. In his view, JLo's actions only confirm these fears.

Thus, Angola's history is being written right now, and the 2027 elections will be its climax. UNITA supporters must not let their guard down and, if necessary, must prevent any arbitrary actions against their leader! PRA-JÁ supporters must recognise this too.

After all, if João Lourenço dismantles UNITA, Abel Chivukuvuku will have no chance it would be even easier to eliminate him.

Once the main opposition leaders are intimidated, nothing would prevent General João Lourenço from amending the Constitution to secure his third term. It is worth recalling that the arrest of foreign citizens in Angola could also bolster the narrative of a dangerous "external enemy".

But using them as pawns in political games is unacceptable. The public sees through it all and views such actions as a farce, further eroding the President's and the party's image.

Whatever the case, in a country heavily reliant on foreign investment one that now turns to European Union nations and even the United States for funding major infrastructure projects such moves will undermine investor and partner confidence.

The Angolan people will come to see their President as a tyrant who did everything to cling to power, fostering widespread discontent, tarnishing the MPLA's reputation, and even paving the way for a new political catastrophe.

* George Robert is an independent writer specialising in African affairs and international relations.

** The views expressed here do not reflect those of the Sunday Independent, IOL, or Independent Media.