The United States’s suspension of nuclear fuel to the Koeberg Power Plant during the country’s power crisis has raised eyebrows among some energy and political analysts who believed that it would not only increase the costs but could also have an impact on the US-SA relations.
Eskom Holdings is examining how the suspension of a pact that enables it to import nuclear fuel components from the US will affect its sole atomic plant.
The Agreement for Cooperation in Peaceful Uses of Nuclear Energy between the US and SA expired on December 4.
This has resulted in a supplier, Westinghouse Electric Co, losing its license from the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission to export fuel-assembly components for Eskom’s Koeberg plant.
The suspension comes despite US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s visit to the country this week and her meeting with Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana to discuss issues pertaining to trade.
Yellen told Reuters that she had discussed economic sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine at every stop on her Africa tour and she was hopeful an agreement on the next Russian oil price cap could be reached soon.
However, it could not be immediately confirmed if the licence issue formed part of the South African leg of her visit.
Energy expert Hilton Trollip warned that the move by the US was a signal and if not heeded might sour relations with SA.
“The US could decide on making a ruling saying that any company that supplies us will be sanctioned.”
He added that SA’s alliance with Russia could also be interpreted as SA having taken sides in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
Trollip said the licence issue had put enormous leverage in the hands of an individual company who might decide to charge SA whatever they liked.
A spokesperson for Koeberg Alert Alliance, Peter Becker, believed that the refurbishment of the Koeberg plant was a “significant economic risk”.
“This loss of the import licence for nuclear fuel is an additional risk, since even if Eskom completes the refurbishment without mishap or delay (unlikely, given the track record), and the plant is granted a licence extension, without fuel Koeberg will be a very expensive white elephant.”
Becker said the licence loss also comes at a time where SA would have joint military exercises with Russia.
“This comes with the risk of sanctions against South Africa, and the nuclear fuel may just be the tip of the iceberg,” he warned, adding that it was now time to address some critical questions.
“This is the time to ask if the 3.5% of electricity generated by Koeberg is worth all these risks.”
But some energy experts disagreed and described the uproar over the expiry of the license as a “storm in a teacup” and dismissed any suggestions of a huge impact on Koeberg’s operations.
Energy economist Lungile Mashele said: “It expired, now it just needs to be renewed. It’s also imperative to note that we're not buying nuclear on the go, it’s a long-term thing. It should have zero impact on us. There are various ways and means to get fuel for Koeberg.“
Nuclear physicist and CEO of Nuclear Africa, Dr Kelvin Kemm, echoed the sentiments, saying “We have more than one route to bring in nuclear fuel ... we should not be dependent on a single supplier. I firmly believe it’s only a temporary issue and that it will be resolved soon,” he said, adding that Koeberg is well run.
Energy expert Nick Hedley also added that Koeberg was important as the country needed all the power it could get and provided cheap, clean energy.
Eskom said if Koeberg had received the fuel required for the current planned outage of Unit 1 from Westinghouse this would be used in June.
“For the Unit 2 outage beginning in November, the fuel has been sourced and will be supplied by Framatome (French-based company). This covers Koeberg for the next three years, during which time it will put in place a contract for the next supplier. There are no fuel shortages or any other impact expected therefore,” said Eskom spokesperson Sikonathi Mantshantsha.
Political expert and international scholar, Dr Oscar van Heerden, said he did not foresee that the licence issue would sour geopolitical relations. US President Joe Biden has taken a pro-Ukranian stance and wants some European Union and African countries to adopt the same. Just because the West wants everyone to agree with them doesn’t mean that they will have their way. South Africa is a mature, rational international player and views the Russia-Ukraine conflict in its historical context,“ he said.
Energy expert and former Chief Nuclear Officer at Eskom, David Nicholls, said he would assume that the DMRE was scrambling to rectify the licence issue.
“It’s an administrative stuff-up, errors were certainly made. It’s important to note that this has nothing to do with politics, it’s simply an administrative error. I do believe that we can resolve this within the next six to nine months. If we don’t replace the supplier, we need to resolve this matter urgently.”
The Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE) said it expected to issue a statement on the matter next week.