To stabilise the economy, the country would need at least 10 years to recover.
THOUGH polls have predicted the ANC could drop below 50% in the next election, ushering in a coalition government for South Africa, analysts have warned such an outcome could create instability and lead to possible unrest.
The situation could be exacerbated if the ANC were to emerge as the anchor party to the coalition, say analysts.
Questions have also been raised about whether or not the ANC would accept the loss.
And to stabilise the economy, the country would need at least 10 years to recover.
The precursor to the general elections will take place at Nasrec in December when thousands of ANC delegates elect their new leadership.
This week, EFF leader Julius Malema, told media that the party was open to entering into a coalition agreement with the ANC if Treasurer Paul Mashatile were to emerge as president at the December conference.
Malema also said the EFF would not work with the DA as this would make leader John Steenhuisen the next president.
Advocate and an activist for political and human rights and violence monitor Mary de Haas have also warned the jostling for the limited positions could see a spike in political killings within some parties in the lead up to a deal being struck between the different political parties.
“Once politics becomes fluid with coalitions at a national level, it could provoke more violence than with just a single party controlling the government,” de Haas said.
She said while a coalition at a national level would be a new phenomenon, a closer look at election trends would lead her to believe that there could be an increase in political violence.
“This is because people get away with killing all the time and because of the jostling that will happen after the election, in which there wasn't a clear majority (it) might fuel tensions and the tensions might lead to violence.
“People use violence and they use it for economic purposes and political purposes (when there’s) more competition between parties with positions. It seems that a coalition government with shifting allegiances and power plays for the plum positions could fuel more violence,” De Haas said.
Political analyst, Prof Andre Duvenhage, said a coalition would not bode well for South Africans.
“Our track record of coalition politics is not very healthy as is the case in Africa,” Duvenhage said, adding that so far no African country had been able to successfully have a coalition government in place.
Listing the possible scenarios, Duvenhage said the ANC would continue to be a key player as it would be the strongest party.
“But the question is will they align with the EFF or will they align with the moderate groups? If the Ramaphosa alliance wins in December they will go with the moderate groups. If it is the RET faction or some of the other groups (within the ANC) it could go the way of the EFF,” Duvenhage said.
He added that the make-up of the coalition at a national level could also be different than the composition of a coalition at the provincial government level.
“We may see a more than ‘one size fits all’, we may see different agreements at different levels of government. It is also an open question if the SACP is going to stand as a party and contest the election,” Duvenhage said.
He added opposition parties joining forces to oust the ANC was also a possibility.
The DA has in past said it was reluctant to form part of a coalition with too many political parties.
Political analyst Lukhanyo Vangqa believed there could be a coalition government where the ANC finds itself as the opposition as it has so far not mastered the art of putting together a coalition.
“The ANC lost that battle in 2016 and they lost it again in 2021, they don’t know how to negotiate a coalition,” Vangqa said.
Vangqa said South Africa should brace itself for a period of relative instability, much like Italy, changing presidents every two years.
“This is one of those teething problems of democratic growth and maturity that we must accept having had the ANC as a government for the past 28 years has given us some sort of stability in terms of a national government.
“Going into a coalition means we are heading into a very unstable period for at least 10 to 15 years. That is how long it takes a coalition government to mature, that’s how long it takes political parties to get accustomed to the responsibilities that come with a coalition governance,” Vangqa said.
He added that good governance, service delivery and the economy would be dealt a major blow.
At a national level, South Africa has only ever had a coalition government running the show from April 1994 to February 1997, when a government of national unity was established.
The collective was led by Nelson Mandela as president and FW De Klerk as his deputy president. Mandela’s cabinet included ministers from other political parties as well as members of the National Party and Inkatha Freedom Party.