The chances of the Bulls preventing the Irish shut-out many are predicting for the deciding round of the United Rugby Championship will depend on them being able to do in the semi-final what they have yet to do this season - produce an 80 minute performance.
The Bulls host Leinster, a shadow Ireland national team in all but name, in the first semi-final on Saturday, while Munster will play the Glasgow Warriors in the second game at Thomond Park in Limerick later in the evening.
While Munster will start as strong favourites to secure the win that will see them host next week’s final, the home advantage enjoyed by the Bulls may balance out the contest yet not enough to prevent the visitors being cast as favourites.
At home, the Bulls do have a chance against anyone, but their chances of victory in this game may depend on them making what has become their customary fast start and then doing something they tend not to do, which is to keep the pressure on until the end of the game.
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Making a fast start
The trend that has been set by the Bulls at Loftus, with the significant exception of the one game they lost at home to Munster, has been for them to use the period when the visitors are adjusting to the altitude to build a big lead. They haven’t been punished for it, but a frustrating habit that has surely had their coach Jake White pulling at his hair in frustration has been for them to take the foot off the accelerator and allow the opposition to fight back.
Against a team as good as Leinster is, they can’t afford to do that. A lot will depend for the Bulls on how their bench fares when those players come on later in the game. Leinster, particularly with the Bulls missing Kurt-Lee Arendse and Canan Moodie, are a more experienced and decorated starting team on paper, but it is when you get to the bench that the margin between the teams becomes particularly pronounced.
The teams are only set to be announced later on Friday, but the Leinster bench will probably boast more international caps than the entire Bulls squad. It is the Leinster depth of both talent and experience that gives them the edge against most teams. When the Bulls played Leinster in Dublin in league play, they were well in the game up until half-time. It was after that, when the experienced Leinster bench players came on, that the game shifted towards a one-sided win for the hosts.
What can stop Leinster though is for the Bulls to get off to a quick start and rack up points at the stage of the game, when the visiting players are still getting used to the burning sensation at the back of the throats that comes with playing on the highveld.
The Bulls have punished a lot of teams early on this season in home games. The other highveld team, the Lions, have done the same. In the Lions’ game against Leinster, they were going at a point a minute up to the 20th minute. Leinster settled later and had some strong moments, but they were always chasing the game after the initial Lions flurry and in doing so they made mistakes that were punished.
That the top Leinster players did not take their opportunity back then to get used to the conditions they will face on Saturday is of course helpful to the Bulls. But how much of a difference will it make unless the Bulls impact squad, as the Bulls call the reserves in their team announcement press releases, dig deep and raise their game when they come on?
Leinster have shown in the two games they’ve played since their Champions Cup extra time defeat to Toulouse that they are bristling with intent in their quest to make up for the past two seasons where they topped the log but ended up with nothing in terms of silverware.
It goes without saying that the Bulls will have to be a lot less passive than they were for long sections of last week’s quarterfinal against Benetton. One fancies though that starting as underdogs will suit them, and that gives them a very definite chance. It can be easier in a playoff game if there is less expectation, something the Bulls should know well as they beat Leinster at the RDS Arena when rank underdogs two seasons ago.
The memory of that game should inspire some confidence for the Bulls, but at the same time it will be another factor mitigating against the chances of Leinster arriving in a complacent mood.
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