Damn stats! Novice finds solace at Two Oceans

File Picture: Adrian de Kock

File Picture: Adrian de Kock

Published Apr 22, 2017

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Fifty-six kilometres in five hours, eight minutes and 26 seconds. Positioned 1484 out of 9217.

To different people, the numbers above will mean completely different things. No wonder a former Danish coach once famously said: “Statistics are just like mini-skirts, they give you good ideas but hide the most important thing.”

I ran my maiden Old Mutual Two Oceans Marathon last Saturday and finished it in the time as stated above. For a novice that was a good time, everyone has been telling me.

But when you consider that winner Lungile Gongqa had long finished (3:09.43) by the time I dragged my tired limbs over the line, you realise just how average those numbers are.

It’s all a matter of perspective, really.

And so it probably is with the 2016/17 Absa Premiership title race that is fast approaching the home straight.

Cape Town City are top of the table with 46 points from 24 matches with Bidvest Wits in second a point behind having played two matches less. In third spot with 45 points from 24 matches are Kaizer Chiefs while defending champions Mamelodi Sundowns have 44 points from 22 matches.

A colleague said in an article yesterday that Wits are in the driving seat as they have collected more points from less matches. The assumption there is that the Clever Boys will win their two matches in hand and then go up to 51 points. Using that reasoning, Sundowns will thus go to second place and will trail Gavin Hunt’s team by just a point.

Well, theoretically that is true. Yet, as we’ve seen recently, games in hand do not equal points in the bag.

While they have since recovered in such a good way as to seriously dent SuperSport United’s title aspirations by beating their neighbours twice, Sundowns had gone through a bad patch that saw them fail to put to good use their games in hand.

My colleague reasoned further that because Wits no longer have the “distractions” of local and continental cup commitments, they should be able to focus better on the title chase than the other competitors.

That, too, is but mere theory - didn’t the same Wits fail in their quest for the ultimate domestic honour in the previous season despite having no “CAF” distraction?

In any case, doesn’t Hunt always talk about the importance of his teams playing regularly because it keeps them sharp?

Where will they get that sharpness from now that they are out of both the Nedbank Cup as well as the Confederation Cup?

Sundowns, meanwhile, will be kept “sharp” by their continued participation in the Nedbank Cup - as will Chiefs - plus the upcoming defence of the CAF Champions League in their quest to hold on to the local title. Whether they will be able to translate games in hand into points remains to be seen.

It makes for yet another fascinating finish to the championship with every match involving the challengers from now on a must-see. And the fact that some of the contenders still have to play each other, adds more intrigue as to where the title will eventually end up.

Just next Tuesday Chiefs are away to City while Wits host SuperSport. Chiefs still have to face both SuperSport and Wits while the Clever Boys have a date with Sundowns. Brace yourself for more twists and turns in this fascinating race.

And don’t let the current numbers fool you into thinking you can predict who the ultimate winners will be.

Oh, that 5:08.26 was actually pretty fast. It got me into 471st place of 2372 men in my age category. And I was the fifth finisher of the 37 runners who ran the race registered under my club’s name. Not too shabby, hey? Damn statistics!

@Tshiliboy

Saturday Star

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