The Presidential Climate Commission’s (PCC) inaugural assessment of South Africa’s climate action has revealed an alarming stagnation in progress despite strong commitments and public support.
The comprehensive State of Climate Action Report, launched July 26, which reviews data up to the end of 2023, highlights significant barriers such as incoherent policies, weak governance structures, insufficient finance, and inconsistent actions by the government and stakeholders.
These obstacles severely hinder the country’s efforts to reduce emissions, enhance climate resilience, and improve the livelihoods of all South Africans, particularly those most impacted by the climate transition.
“To meet the country’s goal of reducing emissions to net zero CO2 by 2050, significant and unprecedented changes will be required to transform the sector,” the report states. Chapter Eight of the report examines South Africa’s progress on some of these transformations.
According to the PCC, more than 40% of South Africa’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions stem from electricity production, predominantly coal-based, making the country’s electricity system one of the most carbon-intensive in the world.
Even though energy supply has been able to sufficiently meet recent demand, South Africa's energy security is in jeopardy due to historically declining energy availability from the coal fleet.
Eskom, the state-owned electricity utility, is cited as a primary contributor to these issues.
The report cites an independent assessment commissioned by the National Treasury which identified Eskom's overly complex governance structure as the root cause of the low energy availability factor (EAF).
Complicated procurement processes and inadequate capacity to address operational challenges have led to poor conditions at many plants. This inefficiency has exacerbated load shedding, which has escalated year on year since 2018.
Load shedding’s impact on South Africa’s economy is staggering. Nova Economics estimates R43.5 billion in losses from 2007 to 2019, with a dramatic increase to R224 billion in losses from 2020 through the first quarter of 2023.
These economic disruptions, compounded by operational issues, have adversely affected productivity and employment, particularly for businesses relying on consistent electricity.
The coal value chain, encompassing 150,000 to 200,000 jobs, is also facing severe implications. Although global coal demand has risen recently, the longer-term trend is a plateau and eventual decline, threatening job security in the sector.
The PCC's analysis suggests that meeting the low end of the 2030 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) will result in significant job losses in coal mining, with minimal mitigation through local employment diversification or renewable energy investments.
Furthermore, new employment opportunities in the renewable energy sector may not be as concentrated in regions heavily dependent on coal, such as Mpumalanga, leading to regional economic disparities.
Energy poverty disproportionately impacts women and children, exacerbating gender-based inequalities and safety risks while air pollution from coal-related activities continues to have devastating health impacts on communities near coal power stations and mines.
Decarbonising the electricity system, though challenging, promises significant health benefits for millions. Delays in decommissioning coal plants, as recently announced by Eskom, could result in severe health and economic repercussions.
“Eskom’s current planned retirement schedule and emission control retrofits, emissions from operational plants are projected to result in 79,500 air pollution–related deaths from 2025 until each plant’s end of life. Full compliance with minimum emissions standards could help avoid 2,300 deaths per year and save R42 billion annually from 2025,” the report found.
To overcome these challenges, several key shifts are required across South Africa's electricity system, including building new renewable energy plants, increasing storage capacity, and accelerating the pace of fossil plant closures.
These transformations must align with the just transition framework to ensure all South Africans, particularly those most vulnerable, benefit equitably from climate action initiatives. Major policy shifts required, according to the report, include:
- Revision of the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) 2019:
- Effective Carbon Pricing and Emissions Trading:
- Updated National Energy Efficiency Strategy (NEES):
- Mobilisation of Support for Green Finance:
- More Comprehensive Just Transition Framework:
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