Durban and other parts of KwaZulu-Natal recently took a beating as heavy winds and rains lashed the province with the city centre receiving 30.9 mm of rain in a few hours, according to the South African Weather Service.
The Weather Service’s historic rainfall data showed that June was usually the driest month of the year for Durban with an average of 27 mm of rain dispersed throughout the month.
With increased risks posed by a changing climate to various climate sensitive sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing and processing, numerous studies have already been conducted on analysing possible near to long term future projections of likely changes in atmospheric variables.
South Africa, which is regarded to be specifically vulnerable to climate change due to its geographical location within the dry subtropics and socio-economic landscape, is no exception.
The South African Weather Service’s Climate Change Atlas uses computer-generated data to predict changes in temperature and rainfall patterns between 2036-2066 using historic climate data from the period 1976-2005.
SAWS projections estimate that the KZN coast and inland regions will see average temperature increases of between 1-2 degrees Celsius over the next 40 years. This increase in average surface temperatures and subsequent shifting in air and ocean currents will see a decrease in average rainfall over KZN of between 5mm-10mm along the coast and 50mm-100mm in the KZN interior.
Projections show that while there will be an overall decrease in average rainfall in South Africa, there will also be an increase of rainfall in certain areas including parts of the KZN north coast.
It is important to note that climate predictions can be overestimated or underestimated as humans have not lived through a climate event as the one we are experiencing currently, there is no precedent which we can look back at.
That being said, the overall scientific consensus is that climate change will cause rainfall to be more erratic and concentrated with large amounts of precipitation occurring over shorter periods of time followed by prolonged dry spells, much like we are seeing now.
IOL