SIPHAMANDLA ZONDI
We are a country of many elections. Hardly have we recovered from the eventful May elections, we have to witness by-elections in municipal wards across the country.
We have seen lots of dynamics manifest themselves both in line with the May 2024, general election but also not so in line. What do we make of these elections and their results? With what Certainty can we use them to assess the mood of voters on the ground month in and month out? Can we count them to anticipate how voters respond to the post-election period including the Government of National Unity coalition currently in power? Should political parties pay any attention to trends. Should those planning of entering the party political terrain worry themselves with tendencies manifesting?
There is a lot that says things have stabilised and there are prospects for growth and progress. But there is enough to say it is uncertain and unpredictable. It is the story of winters and summers.
This week we witnessed by-elections in 12 wards of Thabazimbi in the Limpopo province, where a municipal government collapsed due to political wrangling between the DA and the ANC in the main but with ructions in the Thabazimbi Residents Association adding to the crisis.
So, the by-elections would have been completely unnecessary if there had been political maturity in that council after the 2021 local government elections. If the parties currently in a stable national coalition had shown the same maturity in Thabazimbi.
Had the national leadership of these organisations exercised some wise leadership oversight over the council and got issues resolved in some amicable way, we would not have used so much energy and resources to run a huge by-election at the time when the people of Thabazimbi need services and local economic development to happen.
The majority of by-elections since 2021 are a result of circumstances none could have prevented such as deaths. May the souls of the councillors who passed working to improve a lot of residents rest in peace.
But on a few occasions, by-elections come from the failure of our party politics. Thabazimbi was an embarrassing case with parties in conflict forming rival councils, appointing two municipal managers and running parallel processes.
Like kids in a playing ground leaders entrusted with political power used it to play games of little consequence. The political parties that people trusted did very little to arrest the situation. No consequence for abandoning the people or those who deserted their mandate and party plans for games.
Over 50 000 voters were registered for Thabazimbi elections. Some 21 candidates ran for election and it included those who were part of the chaos that led to the dissolution of the Council about a month ago. Two new parties tested their power, namely: the uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP) and AMCU-backed Labour Party.
The people of Thabazimbi showed mercy on the ANC and the DA that were part of the shambles that led to the dissolution of the Council. The ANC came out tops with 10 seats but short of an outright majority to enable it to form a government. It needed 12 in the 23-seat Council. The DA came a distant second with 4 seats. It is followed by the Economic Freedom Fighters with 3 seats.
The Labour Party debuted with 2 seats, which is a huge achievement in the first election. The MKP gained a seat ahead of a few parties that have operated in the area for a while including the United Democratic Movement and the Inkatha Freedom Party.
The Labour Party is associated with the AMCU trade union which has become dominant in mining areas. This is a party to watch as is the MKP. They can become catalysts for changes for good or bad.
With these results, the ANC has 3 options for forming a government. The first is with the DA, its key rival locally and its partner nationally. Both parties are fast overcoming apprehension about working with each other. They are learning to cooperate and put differences aside. They are learning to accommodate each other out of necessity.
The second option is to work with the EFF whose policies and interests it shares. But the EFF is a confident, bold and militant movement slightly to the left of the ANC at a time when the ANC has settled into a more ideologically centrist position. The EFF can also be unpredictable. It is nimble. It can play power beyond its real size. The ANC would be wary of it.
The last option is to form a coalition with the Labour Party. The party is not yet known. But given its AMCU association, we can anticipate it to be militant on worker issues and be untrusting to the ANC over Marikana legacies. We do not know if the Labour Party will not mind associating with the ANC, which it associates with mine authorities. AMCU has been fighting for over a decade.
The ANC may still out of its volition decide to form a multi-party in order to not hamstring itself to one major party, to dilute the power of its big partner or simply to emulate national government. This is not necessary but it is an option.
Professor Siphamandla Zondi is the Director of the Institute for Pan African Thought and Conversation.
Daily News