REDGE NKOSI
If recent voting trends are to go by, the ruling African National Congress (ANC) is assured of little or no prospects of returning to govern any of these big metros, especially Tshwane, Johannesburg, eThekwini and Cape Town. However, winning back metros is not an impossible task, though a fairly hilly climb.
But why should the ANC fail to return to govern these metros? And how can it reverse its fortunes? As we will see, it boils down to simple yet profoundly important elements that run through the “veins” of a certain calibre of voters; leadership.
Urban areas, be it in South Africa or elsewhere in the world, especially the big metros, are theatres of fierce political contestation among political parties. The heavier the economic weight of a metropolitan area, the higher the levels of contestation.
Aside from these metros being very rich, they also boast the most sophisticated voters. Sophisticated voters, though highly varied, share a few idiosyncrasies in common. Because they are rather moneyed and, on average, highly informed, they are most likely to be influenced not by loose and loud promises of employment, gender dimension, or cheap slogans that are accompanied by little or no substance but rather by the calibre of leaders elected.
The ANC is not short of such visionary leaders with impeccable meritocratic qualities, notwithstanding struggle credentials. For example, the current ANC Coordinator in Joburg Metro does not only hold a Master's Degree but a litany of Post Graduate Degrees in Public Policy Development as well as extensive executive leadership credentials in the economic arena. It is, therefore, not true that ANC leaders, unlike the electorate, are allergic to education or have no executive leadership capacity.
Therefore, winning metros, and Joburg Metro, in particular, will require an appreciation of the dynamics that undergird these voters, most of who vary from city to city and class to class, and in some instances, even race to race. So, tapping into the pulse of the voters is critical if the ANC is serious about winning back the Metros.
According to the Independent Electoral Commission, the Joburg Region is the most contested metro in the country. In the November 2021 elections, 56 political parties contested the local government elections, by far the highest in the country.
A study (by Christine Fauvelle-Aymar) specifically focussed on the City of Johannesburg reveals fairly interesting observations that should guide parties and, therefore, the ANC. The pattern may not necessarily reflect the national dynamic but may as well point to what is to come.
For example, the electoral sociology literature says that voter turnout decreases with the level of deprivation and increases with the level of education and that voter turnout is also much higher in white suburbs than in black suburbs. (https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Level-of-turnout-in-Johannesburg-electoral-wards_fig1_236830443)
Seemingly, educated voters in the Joburg Region primarily vote for a person or a party that they believe has a history of high intolerance to poor delivery of services in their areas, is equally educated, whilst they hold high regard for the integrity (moral standing) of that person or party.
Metros, especially the Joburg Region, also have an electorate with access to mainstream and social media. The ANC in Joburg Region must not fool itself by believing that the personal protective equipment scandal will not resurface towards elections. Or let “them eat chicken feet” video, which will surely be paraded as a ‘Marie Antoinette’ moment which is unlikely to help the ANC come back to power, irrespective of how weak the other parties may be.
In this period of economic turmoil, which has besieged many Metros coupled with the middle-class crisis, amplified by gender-based violence and general uncertainty, the ANC just does not have any leader to lead the metros, but it needs a visionary and pragmatist.
A leader who will surround themselves with the best of minds to pull the Metros out of economic stagnation. A leader who will end economic sabotage of infrastructure. A leader who will bring both men and women together to end gender-based violence. A leader who will alleviate poverty. And a leader who will prioritise the safety and security of citizens.
The ANC can convincingly win back all the metros. It simply needs to ensure it gives the voter leaders who are fit for purpose.
Redge Nkosi is an economist. His intellectual focus is in macroeconomics, money, banking and development economics.
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