Low probability of Stage 16 load shedding, says Nersa, but contingency plans must exist

Stage 16 load shedding may or may not happen but preparations have to be set in place, according to the National Energy Regulator of South Africa (Nersa) and the National Rationalised Specifications (NRS) Association of South Africa.

Officials from Nersa and the NRS addressed a media briefing on Tuesday where they sought to clarify the reasons behind Stage 16 load shedding.

This followed reports about the “National Rationalised Specifications (NRS) 048-9 Edition 3 Code of Practice” which had introduced protocols for up to Stage 16 load shedding. Stage 16, the regulator said on Tuesday, would be equivalent to 32 hours of load shedding.

Nersa on Tuesday maintained that “although the protocol considers situations of up to 80% of load not met, it is highly improbable that the situation would ever arise”.

Nersa’s regulator member for electricity regulation, Nhlanhla Gumede, emphasised that there was a difference between a blackout and “an emergency system or protocol that is aimed at ensuring good stability” of the system which was load shedding.

Gumede said: “It is a controlled intervention which affects a limited number of customers at any one time. Blackout is without warning uncontrolled and can affect many, if not all, customers. It is highly unlikely that we will ever actually have a blackout.”

He added that as energy generation was going green, the impact of the weather would come into play.

“This applies not only to green and solar, but also hydro. The greener we become, the more dependent we become on the weather.”

Gumede said the code of practice was a standard that guides the system operator on the steps to implement load shedding “in a manner that seeks to protect the power system while minimising hardship”.

“It is a code of practice for realtime emergency load shedding – how it should be implemented and communicated. Restoration of supply after a major system incident, prioritising essential services where technically feasible. Increasing of load shedding stages is aimed at assisting and empowering the national electricity system operator to mitigate the impact of load shedding stages,” the regulator member added.

Energy analyst Hügo Krüger said it was important to have contingency plans in place.

“It’s sensible of Nersa and Eskom to do so, it’s important to take black swan risks into account. Very low probability, high consequence,” he said.

Cape Times