Emerging assets fall on Fed move

The Johannesburg Stock Exchange in Sandton City. File picture: Timothy Bernard

The Johannesburg Stock Exchange in Sandton City. File picture: Timothy Bernard

Published Dec 15, 2016

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Dubai - Emerging-market stocks and currencies were poised

for the biggest drop in a month after the Federal Reserve combined an

anticipated interest rate increase with a surprise signal it will be more

hawkish than expected next year. The dollar strengthened for a third day.

“This is a Fed that could be tighter than we thought,”

said Mohamed El-Erian, the chief economic adviser at Allianz and a Bloomberg

View columnist. “That’s what really moved the market.”

The Federal Reserve boosted borrowing costs by 25 basis

points and forecast a steeper path in 2017. That could spell trouble for

emerging markets as higher dollar rates reduce the appetite for riskier assets.

Policy makers in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and

Bahrain raised interest rates since the Fed’s announcement on Wednesday.

Bloomberg’s Richard Breslow: The MSCI emerging currency

index has given up the ghost after trying to claw its way back above the

200-day moving average. Its Fibonacci retracement chart has gone from looking

cautiously optimistic to a classic fail.

Markets

The MSCI Emerging Market Index fell 1.4 percent The MSCI

EM Asia Index retreated 1.1 percent as all but one of the 10 industry gauges

fell, led by energy shares The MSCI Emerging-Markets Currency Index declined

0.8 percent Dubai FM General Index slipped as much as 1 percent Indonesian

government bonds led declines across most emerging debt, with the yield on

10-year bonds rising 17 basis points to 4.42 percent; the central bank kept

interest rates unchanged Yield on China’s 2026 local-currency bonds added 15

basis points to a record 3.34 percent Yield on South Africa’s local-currency

10-year bonds advanced 15 basis points as the rand weakened 0.8 percent South

Korea’s won was set for the biggest drop in a month Russian Ruble is the

biggest gainer in emerging currencies, strengthening 0.8 percent

Research

The outlook is negative for Turkish, Middle Eastern and

South African non-financial companies in 2017 because of expected low economic

growth, “weak” consumer and business confidence, and foreign exchange swings,

Moody’s Investors Service says BNP Paribas favors Indian stocks, Indonesian

bonds and currency and Brazil’s real in emerging markets Bank of Korea is

expected to cut interest rates next year because of worsening growth outlook

after holding on Thursday, Capital Economics says

-With assistance

from Constantine Courcoulas and Tracy Alloway.

BLOOMBERG

 

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