With the volatile market conditions prevailing in the world many people are of the opinion the future is unpredictable and uncertain.
And to a certain extent recent events, such as the Covid-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine war, the energy crisis, high inflation and many more, have contributed to this opinion,.
But is the future really as unpredictable as people would like to believe? Jason Clarke, the founder of Minds at Work, does not believe so, since today’s cutting edge technology often was yesterday’s science fiction.
In 1966, the well-known and popular series "Star Trek" featured tablets, smart communicators, Bluetooth and virtual reality holodecks.
And Batman had a car phone and GPS. In 1968, the movie "2001: A Space Odyssey" portrayed astronauts interacting with artificial intelligence built into the on-board computer, Facetime and tablets (also used during meals while ignoring one another!).
Even the Covid-19 pandemic was not as random or unexpected as political leaders liked to claim. Virologists and epidemiologists have been predicting this exact scenario for decades based on history and past incidences.
We may thus experience the future as unpredictable, unprecedented and uncertain, but it is hardly the case if we pay close attention. Perhaps it is more an issue of not being prepared for the waves of change. We all know that the only constant in life is change – almost like a series of waves that build and swell and break and scatter according to its own rhythm and cycles. If we pay closer attention we may perhaps recognise the patterns and learn to surf the waves of change.
Managing technological change is therefore akin to surfing. Just like waves, technological change never stops. It can be large or small, fast or slow, but it is continuous. No two waves are exactly the same, but if we look closely there are recognisable patterns. Waves build up, roll, peak and eventually break. The only difference between catching the wave and missing it is how well you understand the characteristics of the particular wave as it forms.
John Seely Brown, the former chief scientist of Xerox Corporation, has indicated that the frequency of change and the degree of interdependence we experience today are unprecedented. Previously, periods of major change – such as the introduction of the steam engine, the telegraph, electricity, or even cars – were followed by periods of relative stability of about 50 to 70 years. In the past two decades or so, however, new technologies have upended and destabilised this particular model. Technological change is happening continuously and at a much faster pace.
Any experienced surfer would tell you that you cannot surf every wave. Business leaders should not spend all their time in execution mode, but spend time scanning the horizon for the next big technological wave and get into position. Surfers spend 80% of their time in the water scanning the horizon for the right wave and less than 10% of their time surfing.
Technology constantly changes and develops. It has its own cycles and ups and downs. But many of these technological changes are mere ripples in the Great Ocean of technological change. This means businesses need to look away from “business as usual” and the small waves, and rather focus on the whole ocean and the big waves.
I recently had the privilege of adjudicating the top Digital Transformation (dx100) companies in Africa. More than 400 companies entered the competition, but it soon became apparent that most of them were busy with digitisation, or the move from analogue to digital. They were still converting paper records to digital computer files.
Others had progressed a little further and implemented digitalisation or the use of digital data and systems to simplify how they work. Only a few companies were busy with real digital transformation or the process of using digitised information to make established ways of working simpler and more efficient. It is time that companies position themselves for the big waves.
When the right wave comes, it is important that business leaders commit themselves to the wave and ride it. If the waves of technological change are harnessed, they can become a valuable source of competitive advantage.
Just like the waves of the ocean, technology constantly changes. Our human creativity and inventiveness has made technological innovation a powerful constant in our lives since the discovery of fire. And we have a pretty good idea of the direction in which technology is developing: From single systems to collaborative networks, from programmed to self-taught systems, from dumb to smart, from human labour to artificial intelligence and robotics.
We need to catch the big waves. As we start recognising the patterns, it indeed becomes easier to find the right technological waves in business. It is time that business leaders put themselves on the right side of the wave and start surfing it instead of merely trying to manage technological change to mitigate the risks.
Professor Louis C H Fourie is an Extraordinary Professor at the University of the Western Cape.
BUSINESS REPORT